electric car share of 56% in 2030 and 80% in 2035

Market analyst Dataforce has compiled automakers’ combustion engine recall plans. The sum of the market shares of these manufacturers gives a projection of the shares of BEV (BEV/Battery Electric Vehicle) in Europe. Only manufacturers who have committed to 100% of the BEVs have been taken into account. However, since other brands aren’t sitting idly by either, the estimates could be even higher.



Automotive factory. Image: Jenson Shutterstock

The extrapolation shows that there are three times when a particularly large number of manufacturers want to exit the market: 2027, 2030 and 2035.

By 2027, the extrapolation results in a BEV share of at least 21%.

In 2030, the development is much faster, since the percentage is 56%, and in 2035 it will reach at least 80%.

However, it must be taken into account that geopolitical influences can delay development if, for example, the quantities of lithium, cobalt and nickel needed to manufacture batteries are not available. There must also be sufficient charging infrastructureAnalyst rating.


For private customers, the study provides information on the future prospects of BEVs.

According to the study, 84% of private customers in the EU-5 countries (Germany, France, Italy, Spain and Great Britain) already consider it at least possible to switch to an electric car. Of these, 25% are certain and 34% probable.


According to Dataforce, a 100% electric future is also supported by the fact that more and more new automakers are focusing exclusively on electric cars.

The most striking case is undoubtedly that of Tesla, which is also the most successful. However, Polestar and MG also managed to gain market share. In the future, we continue to expect interesting developments from brands such as NIO, Lucid, Xpeng or Rivian. In general, there are still Asian manufacturers who want to enter the European marketsay the analysts.

In Norway, many new electric brands are already testing their vehicles, as the framework conditions there are more favorable due to the high electric penetration.

In addition to Tesla and Polestar, there are also models from the brands Hongqi, BYD, MG, Xpeng, Maxus, Seres, Skywell, Jac or NIO. Together, the new entrants already account for an 18.7% share of the total market, according to the valuation.

Dataforce also predicts that the upward trend in automotive subscriptions will further strengthen the development.

Consumers would use flexible rental offers to test drive an electric car for themselves on a daily basis. This way they can minimize the risks of new technologies and see for themselves.

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